Is it Q-Day?
Some basic information.
We monitor the progress of quantum computing to estimate the time when quantum computers will be able to crack encryption. Our information sources include public data from established experts, providers of quantum computing solutions, government resources, and our own proprietary research. Our proprietary research builds on observations of the prior 75 years of compute evolution from ENIAC to GPUs, as well as major shifts in personal computers, the internet, and mobile computing. History rhymes.
In 2024 we estimated that powerful quantum computers would be available after 2027 but before 2030. This was of course a shock to many in the industry who had been estimating 15-20 years, putting the date closer to 2040 than 2030. We are close to the labs and insiders at major quantum technology companies, and we saw that progress was accelerating, that the age-old "always 20 years away" was not something to be trusted. We put more faith in the commercializers than in the academics. This is not to discount academia, but to highlight that commercialization plays a key role in accelerating technology progress. One can see this in the development of the transistor into a viable commercial product.
Now, Google and Scott Aaronson have expressed that 2029 is the year in which Q-Day arrives, which is much closer to our 2028 date. It would not surprise me if their 2029 date moves up — acceleration is not stopping. Interestingly, most of the error correction innovation taking place in the last year has been driven by AI.
It's possible that we might not ever know the moment when encryption is broken by a quantum computer. There's reason to believe that this will happen and be kept behind closed doors at a government facility, where having such an advantage over adversaries would be a reason to keep it secret. There's another line of thinking which says it's in the public's best interest to broadcast the achievement far and wide so as to alert everyone to the reality that existing infrastructure must be upgraded. I suppose we will know more in time.
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