Quantum Computing represents a potential for enormous efficiency gains
A core metric of manufacturing success is performance improvement achieved vs prior processes/methods. A core metric of product success is improvement in performance capability.
Over and over we see industries dramatically improve their performance metrics. 100x and 1,000x improvements sound amazing. And they are everywhere. 10,000x and 100,000x improvements sound exotic. 10,000,000x seems insane. These also appear in products we use every day[1]. Classical computers have already delivered >1,000,000,000,000x improvements in performance when compared with early computers[2].
I propose 1,000,000,000x improvement is a reasonable goal. And I am beginning to think that quantum computers could achieve that in the 2030s. And, I posit, industries which adopt quantum computing will also benefit and achieve similarly outsized performance improvements in their methods, processes, and products.
Someone should start a 1Bx fund.
Brian Potter goes into great detail about performance efficiency in his book, “The Origins of Efficiency”. ↩︎
William Nordhaus wrote extensively about the performance gains of computers. “Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing” is worth reading. ↩︎