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Update Log

Last updated: October 1, 2026

Material changes to estimates and methodology, recorded with rationale and sources. The approach itself is described in the Methodology.

2026‑10‑01 — Corrected U.S. NSS phase-out milestone

Change — Corrected the NSA card’s 2030 milestone: phase out legacy equipment and services unable to support CNSA 2.0.
Rationale — Incompatible equipment and services are being phased out, not CNSA 2.0 algorithms.
Impact — One regulation-card bullet corrected. Q-Day estimates and countdowns unchanged.
Source — NSA announcement (October 1, 2026).

Change — Added Atom Computing to the vendor roadmaps under Neutral Atoms, at 50 logical qubits in 2027, and revised Quandela to 24 physical qubits in 2026, 48 physical in 2027, 50 logical in 2028 and 2029, and 100+ logical in 2030.
Rationale — Magne is among the nearest‑term logical‑qubit machines with a named operator and date. Quandela’s current roadmap supersedes the March 2026 PDF the earlier figures came from, and publishes a milestone for every year rather than for two‑year periods.
Impact — Vendor Roadmaps only. No protocol card, anchor year, or countdown changed.
Sources — Atom Computing acquisition announcement (17 July 2025); QuNorth Magne specifications; Quandela roadmap.

Change — Added Oratomic to the vendor roadmaps under Neutral Atoms, at thousands of logical qubits in 2030.
Rationale — Oratomic’s approach to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is compelling and worthy of tracking.
Impact — Vendor Roadmaps only. No protocol card, anchor year, or countdown changed.
Sources — Oratomic and Monarch Quantum partnership announcement (28 April 2026); Oratomic launch announcement.

Change — Removed on‑card logical‑qubit requirements across all protocol cards.
Change — Clarified copy to avoid implying a first‑to‑break ordering.
Rationale — Grover’s doesn’t map cleanly to qubit counts; Shor resource estimates move quickly and were no longer driving date presentation.
Impact — Presentation cleanup; anchor‑year approach unchanged (standardized earlier on 2026‑06‑09).
Sources — IonQ 2026 ECDLP architecture; Chevignard, Fouque & Schrottenloher (CRYPTO 2025); Gidney 2025; NIST FIPS 203/204/205 (Aug 2024).

Change — Standardized countdowns to a single anchor day‑of‑year (June 10) within each target year for all protocols.
Rationale — Interpolated month/day implied precision that inputs couldn’t support; multiple protocols share the same risk window.
Impact — Some visible countdown month/day shifted; anchor years unchanged (2028/2029 baseline).

Change — Published initial public stance on 2028/2029 risk windows for selected protocols.
Rationale — Consolidated view across vendor roadmaps, research trends, and observed acceleration in error‑correction and compilation.
Impact — Established baseline; subject to revision as methods improve and new data arrives.