Update Log

Material changes to estimates, on‑page wording, and methodology, recorded with rationale and sources. The approach itself is described in the Methodology.

2026‑09‑09 — Card cleanup and copy clarifications

• Change — Removed on‑card logical‑qubit requirements across all protocol cards.
• Change — Clarified copy to avoid implying a first‑to‑break ordering.
• Rationale — Grover’s doesn’t map cleanly to qubit counts; Shor resource estimates move quickly and were no longer driving date presentation.
• Impact — Presentation cleanup; anchor‑year approach unchanged (standardized earlier on 2026‑06‑09).
• Sources — IonQ 2026 ECDLP architecture; Chevignard, Fouque & Schrottenloher (CRYPTO 2025); Gidney 2025; NIST FIPS 203/204/205 (Aug 2024).

2026‑06‑09 — Standardized anchor dates

• Change — Standardized countdowns to a single anchor day‑of‑year (June 10) within each target year for all protocols.
• Rationale — Interpolated month/day implied precision that inputs couldn’t support; multiple protocols share the same risk window.
• Impact — Some visible countdown month/day shifted; anchor years unchanged (2028/2029 baseline).

2025‑08‑09 — Initial public timeline

• Change — Published initial public stance on 2028/2029 risk windows for selected protocols.
• Rationale — Consolidated view across vendor roadmaps, research trends, and observed acceleration in error‑correction and compilation.
• Impact — Established baseline; subject to revision as methods improve and new data arrives.

See also: Methodology.